The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't seem to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke to numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable player."
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Despite the fact that has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are piling on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded cash pushed it to the current line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Coming in On Texas'
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